Importance The article considers the issue of the company's transition to sustainable growth and investigates the trade-off of its performance and life cycle phases. Objectives The research aims to substantiate the hypothesis stating that a system integration concept of sustainable growth should be developed in line with changes in financial and economic characteristics at different phases of life cycle. I also identify an impact on the probability of transition to a new phase and determine significant drivers of instability. Methods I construct logistic regression models based on panel data of public companies to assess the impact of financial and economic factors on corporate growth and model the probability of unsustainable growth. I apply graphical analysis methods. The probability is assessed by calculating partial derivatives of a composite function. Results The research states the need to take into consideration the organization's life cycle concept while examining its condition, underpins the expediency of developing a system integration concept to study company's growth. Using the economic and mathematical methods of analysis, I evaluate and quantify an impact on life cycle phases, calculate the probability of unsustainable growth depending on financial leverage and slow growth phase. Conclusions and Relevance It is important to consider life cycle phases when studying the company's operations. Management should adhere to probabilistic modeling results in order to create forecasts and scenarios of development, potential threats, and motivating factors.
Ключевые слова: life cycle, development, sustainable growth, probability
Список литературы:
Entov R.M., Radygin A.D. Struktura sobstvennosti i problemy korporativnogo kontrolya v rossiiskoi ekonomike [Ownership structure and corporate control problems in the Russian economy]. Moscow, Gaidar Institute Publ., 1999, 67 p.
Mal'ginov G.N., Radygin A.D. Smeshannaya sobstvennost' v korporativnom sektore: evolyutsiya, upravlenie, regulirovanie [Mixed ownership in the corporate sector: Evolution, management, regulation]. Moscow, Gaidar Institute Publ., 2007, 636 p.
Radygin A.D., Entov R.M. Korporativnoe upravlenie i zashchita prav sobstvennosti: empiricheskii analiz i aktual'nye napravleniya reform [Corporate governance and property rights protection: An empirical analysis of current trends and reforms]. Moscow, Gaidar Institute Publ., 2001, 294 p.
Rossiiskaya korporatsiya: vnutrennyaya organizatsiya, vneshnie vzaimodeistviya, perspektivy razvitiya [A Russian corporation: Internal organization, external cooperation and development prospects]. Moscow, Yustitsinform Publ., 2009, 542 p.
Greiner L.E. Evolution and Revolution as Organizations Grow. In: Readings in Strategic Management. David Asch, Cliff Bowman (eds). Macmillan Education, 1989, pp. 373–387. URL: Link
Adizes I. Corporate Lifecycles: How and Why Corporations Grow and Die and What to Do About It. Englewood Cliffs, N.J., Prentice Hall, 1988.
Adizes I. Organizational Passages: Diagnosing and Treating Life Cycle Problems in Organization. Organizational Dynamics, 1979, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 3–25.
Adizes I.K. Upravlenie zhiznennym tsiklom korporatsii [Managing Corporate Lifecycles: How Organizations Grow, Age, and Die]. Moscow, Eksmo Publ., 2016, 512 p.
Miller D., Friesen P.H. A Longitudinal Study of the Corporate Life Cycle. Management Science, 1984, vol. 30, iss. 10, pp. 1161–1183. URL: Link
DeAngelo H., DeAngelo L., Stulz R.M. Dividend Policy and the Earned/Contributed Capital Mix: A Test of the Life‑Cycle Theory. Journal of Financial Economics, 2006, vol. 81, iss. 2, pp. 227–254. URL: Link
Lester D.L., Parnell J.A., Carraher A. Organizational Life Cycle: A Five Stage Empirical Scale. The International Journal of Organizational Analysis, 2003, vol. 11, iss. 4, pp. 339–354. URL: Link
Shirokova G.V. Zhiznennyi tsikl organizatsii: kontseptsii i rossiiskaya praktika [The life cycle of the organization: Concepts and Russian practice]. St. Petersburg, Saint Pertersburg State University Publ., 2007, 480 p.
Shirokova G.V. [Organization's life cycle theory: Analysis of major models]. Menedzhment v Rossii i za rubezhom = Management in Russia and Abroad, 2007, no. 2, pp. 15–22. (In Russ.)
Shirokova G.V., Merkur'eva I.S., Serova O.Yu. [Specifics of life cycle formation of Russian companies (an empirical analysis)]. Rossiiskii zhurnal menedzhmenta = Russian Management Journal, 2006, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 3–26. (In Russ.)
Stepanova A.N., Balkina E.A. [Corporate Financial Architecture at different lifecycle stages: Performance Effect in Russia]. Korporativnye finansy, 2013, vol. 7, no. 3. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Rodionova V.M., Fedotova M.A. Finansovaya ustoichivost' predpriyatiya v usloviyakh inflyatsii [Financial sustainability of an enterprise under inflation]. Moscow, Perspektiva Publ., 1995, 98 p.
Weinzimmer L.G., Nystron P.C., Freeman S.J. Measuring Organizational Growth: Issues, Consequences and Guidelines. Journal of Management, 1998, vol. 24, iss. 2, pp. 235–262.
Wiklund J. The Sustainability of the Entrepreneurial Orientation-Performance Relationship. Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, 1999, vol. 24, iss. 1, pp. 37–48.
